1st down! (or, week 5, new goals)

As mentioned in a previous post, weight loss can be very easily related to American football.

For those unfamiliar with American football- there is a clock, like in soccer (football everywhere else!) In soccer (if I understand the game correctly, there are two 45-minute halves, with no real time outs, and time can be added by the officials at the end of the half (or maybe just the final half). American football is also divided into halves, but each half is 30 minutes long, and further divided into quarters of 15 minutes each. It is fairly unusual for much time, if any, to be added back on to the clock.

After my first successful round of weight loss, I've decided that this is a pretty manageable way of doing things, and have set a goal for the next four weeks. The weight loss goal of the first four weeks was a total of ten pounds; through diet, exercise, a pedometer and an Excel spreadsheet I managed to drop seventeen pounds.

I need to explain "downs" to those unacquainted with American football. In stark contrast to soccer, which is similar to ballet in that there is near constant motion, American football is more like a chess match, with one huge difference. In chess, opponents take turns attempting to place their opponent into check and ultimately mate. In football, a team has four opportunities to run plays and attempt to score- or, at least get another set of downs. An American football field is 100 yards long (meters/metres and yards are fairly close in length; one inch== 2.54cm, a yard ==36 inches, and a meter==39.36 inches [yes, I know these things by heart]). To get a "first down", a team needs to move the ball 10 yards from where they originally possessed it. When they move the ball 10 yards or more, they get a new set of downs.

So, I successfully completed my first four week challenge- I lost 17 pounds. In football parlance, I gained 17 yards, maybe. I now have a new set of downs.

I truly, truly hope all of the soccer fans out there are able to follow this analogy, because I think it works pretty well. Pressing on...

I've moved up the field, farther than I'd expected when I first started. I have a new set of four weeks to work with. Initially, I thought about increasing my goal just a bit, say to 12 pounds for the period. However, I added some simple analytics to my spreadsheet, and decided that instead of shooting for a weight goal for the next four weeks, I'd shoot for something a bit more significant in terms of health. 12 pounds is good, but 14 pounds will drop my BMI into a lower category, so it's a goal worth shooting for.

I've said this before on twitter: I'm not a data scientist nor do I pretend to be one. However, most of us can do some common sense analytics and improve or fine tune our goals. The answers (or very clear directions to the answers) are often right in front of us. We just need to know how to ask the right questions (or to be brave or honest enough to ask them).

My wake up call started with a reflection in a mirror. What's yours?

As always, I am hochspeyer, blogging data analysis and management so you don't have to.